There was a post about the advantage of the one game lead, but while it looked correct it didnt address this particular issue...What does moving to a 7 game playoff with a one game lead for the higher seed mean?

Here are the numbers (sorry if the formatting sucks) assuming that the team with the one game lead has an X% chance of winning an individual game:

Proability of winning........Probability of winning...........Probability of winning
one game.......................... 5 game series ...................7 game series


.30 .35 .26
.33 .40 .31
.40 .52 .46
.45 .61 .56
.50 .69 .66
.55 .76 .74
.60 .82 .82
.66 .88 .89
.70 .92 .93

The difference isnt as large as most would expect, particularly when the "better team" is the higher seed. Even a 40:60 dog in an individual game only loses 6% more of his matches (and goes from a slight favorite to a slight dog for the series).

The edge itself is as big as expected though...instead of being 50/50 to win a series that starts out even and teams of equal ability, the team with the one game lead jumps to a 2:1 favorite in a 7 game series.

DUDES!!!

If there was a post about this why don't you post it THERE instead of starting another thread?

There's like 15 threads for 3 topics in this forum.

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Okay, instead of starting a new thread I'm gonna hijack this one.

Come with me...to a place where FCPHUL has revenue sharing, the players are celebrities, and a world of sponsorship.

STEP 1 - Captains become owners

Intead of random names for each team there will now be one team per city.

I would naturally be Toronto and then I'd add a nickname to it like every other sports franchise (eg. Toronto Polar Bears).

This wouldn't limit players/owners to residential boundries at all though. Royal Tour would naturally play for hometown Toronto but there's nothing stopping him from playing for the Las Vegas Cheap Thieves or owning the Boston Bulldogs.

STEP 2 - Players get Contracts

Self explanatory. Since there may be more revenue than what we currently have, owners will be required to guarantee some money for their players.

Gone are the days where teammates have to put up money but the flip side is that they have no equity either.

Basically, if you are on an FCPHUL team...you are one of the best.

STEP 3 - TV/Internet

I've recently found out that channel 288 for me is an all poker channel. It is shocking that they fill-up time slots with nobodies playing online poker. You don't even get to see their hole cards!!

If these idiots are getting viewers then there's a place for FCPHUL. If not on TV then at least somewhere on the internet.

Since the league is now divided into cities it will be easier for fans to identify who they should cheer for. There could be merchandise sales!

Teams could turn into their own mini-FCP organizations and spurn into other leagues (which act as farm teams in search of new talent)

...there's SO much more but I think I've already said too much...

Balloon Guy, take it away...

Lol, a four year old kid wouldn't even be 30/70 against Ted Forrest. It's been said before, but in almost every single heads up match played this year, the "better" player has at most a 55/45 advantage, and in the majority of the games it is much closer to 50/50. So, if your math is correct, this gives the higher seeded team a 66% chance instead of a 69% to win the series. Therefore I like the idea of the seven game series, especially since it can get more teammates involved.

I agree that 70/30 is an unlikely edge in a single game, i included it to show it really doesnt make much difference whether its 5 or 7 games when the differene is so large. I dont think 60/40 is out of line though. I run about 66:33 in $50 HU matches on Stars and while the HU league may be somewhat better than random Stars players I think there are some players that I would maintain better than a 55:45 edge against.